In C2 we draw on complex systems models developed in IMPC Themes A and B, and scenarios developed in C1, for multi-objective optimization and exploring decision trade-offs. We will use mathematical formulations to find policy-relevant clusters of cases in large databases of simulation model results in a process of ‘scenario discovery.’ Future scenarios will be co-framed and assessed, with IMPC collaborators, and according to multiple criteria such as “robustness” (Herman et al., 2015), defined as the insensitivity of the performance to deviations from the conditions the system has been designed for, and “resilience” (Wang and Blackmore, 2009), defined as the capacity of recovery after a disturbance, failure, or crossing a threshold. Metrics of vulnerability and resilience across the water resources system will be co-developed with collaborators. We will mathematically formulate identified decision problems, and then state-of-the-art methods for single- and multi-objective optimization (Maier et al. 2019) will be used to deliver the decision options that make best use of scarce resources, achieve the best environmental outcomes for a given budget or provide the best trade-offs between competing objectives.

Year 1: Conclude case study of the proposed Upper Qu’Appelle Water Supply project with multi-objective analysis.

Year 2: With collaborators, complete multi-criteria evaluation on several additional decisions problems in the Nelson-Churchill.

Year 3: With collaborators, complete multi-criteria evaluation using newly developed modelling infrastructure from Theme A and B, in the Okanagan, Great Lakes or Saint Johns basin (pending partner interest).

Progress so far:

Undertaken a leadership role on a fast-paced 6 months study to inform proposed work to construct a conveyance structure in the Qu-Appelle region of the Nelson-Churchill. The initial 6 month study focuses on compiling and interpreting existing information sources, with the long-term outlook of multi-objective scenario runs to inform long term planning around infrastructure development and design.

Lead:

Patricia Gober

 

Patricia Gober

Professor Emeritus
University of Saskatchewan | Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy

 

Co-Leads:

Saman Razavi

 

Saman Razavi

Assistant Professor
University of Saskatchewan | School of Environment & Sustainability

 

 





For the initial 6 months we will work closely with Western Economic Diversification to meet their internal project deadline of early March 2020. For other co-framed decision problems we will work with a variety of collaborators involved in all IMPC WPs.

Books and Book Chapters

  • Gober, Patricia. 2018. Building Resilience to Uncertain Water Futures. Cham Switzerland: Palgrave MacMillan.

  • Gober, Patricia. 2018. Environmental Risks and Hazards from a Cognitive-behavioral Perspective. In Handbook of Behavioral and Cognitive Geography, edited by Daniel L. Montello, 322-333. Chapter 18. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.