Integrated Earth Systems Modelling
The objective of this theme is to develop next-generation hydrological and land surface models to address changing cold region processes and their associated risks to societies. This theme focuses on the need to represent key (neglected) features of changing cold regions (e.g. glacier retreat, river ice and floodplain inundation) that have profound effects on changing landscapes, changing water resources and the vulnerability of human populations. Other outputs include tools and strategies to explore and address modelling uncertainties in complex environments.
This theme builds on the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) to pursue paradigm-changing high resolution modelling of climate change (and its impacts on precipitation) and land surface processes (including mountain and glacier hydrology).
Key research questions asked under this theme:
- How can models of cold regions be improved and integrated to better simulate system interactions and feedbacks, and observed variability and change?
- How will these models perform under future change, and new extremes?
Click to explore each of the following work packages under this theme:
A1: Integrating Atmospheric Modelling
High resolution atmospheric modelling to represent scenarios of change and land-atmosphere feedbacks.
A2: Integrating Snow and Glacier Simulations
Improving hydrologic process representations for cold regions to better simulate snow and glacier and accommodate hyper-resolution modelling.
A3: Integrating Water Quality
Integrating land-surface and in-stream water quality processes into hydrologic modelling.
A4: Integrating River Ice Processes
Integrating river ice processes into hydrological modelling for improved operation and flood forecasting.
A5: Analysis of Extremes
Analysis of extreme hydroclimatic variables with emphasis on precipitation & streamflow in past & future.
A6: Model Intercomparison and Analysis
Hydrologic model inter-comparison and multi-model analysis for improved prediction.
A7: Characterizing Uncertainty
Characterization of perdictive uncertainty for impact assessment.