Theme C

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Non-stationarity

The central objective of Theme C is to use models as vehicles to explore alternative futures, highlight critical trade-offs and support policy and managment processes. Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) is used in problems where there is fundamental disagreement about the driving forces that will shape the future and/or the models that describe them, the representation of uncertainty in models, and how to value alternative outcomes (are they gains or losses?). The focus is to engage in collaborative scenario-building excercises informed by stakeholders to articulate alternative narratives of future development and policy, and assess outcomes according to multiple co-framed criteria, such as vulnerability and resilience. 

Click to explore each work package under this theme:


C1: Future Scenario Generation

Generating future scenarios for river-basin scale changes in climate, land surface, and water resources.

C2: Optimizing Policy and Decision Analysis

Optimization and multi-criteria decision analysis to optimize policy and decision scenarios and evaluate trade-offs between different competing objectives.