Integrated Modelling Program for Canada

Integrated Modelling for Prediction and Management of Change in Canada’s Major River Basins

PI: Saman Razavi, Assistant Professor, University of Saskatchewan

Project Manager: Ashleigh Duffy

The Problem: Climate and environmental changes pose major challenges to prediction and management of water resources at local, regional, and national scales in Canada and internationally. Some of the key challenges include: How will these changes affect the quantity and quantity of future water resources in Canada? What are the associated risks to users at different levels from local/Indigenous communities to the nation as a whole? What adaptation/management strategies at different levels across multiple jurisdictions are required to strengthen resilience to the anticipated changes and cope with new hydro-climatic regimes?

The Plan: This project will seek to provide an integrated platform for forecasting, prediction and decision making under future water uncertainty. Advanced modelling tools will be developed and integrated to represent interactions across climatic, hydrological, ecological, economic, and management systems. These tools will enable prediction of extreme events such as floods and droughts and provide a new paradigm for model development, integrated water management and user engagement. Working closely in collaboration with stakeholders and user communities, this integrated modelling and management platform will identify tipping points and critical trade-offs for decision analysis and deliver optimal solutions using state-of-the-art tools for multi-criteria decision analysis under deep uncertainty. In addition, advanced visualization tools will enable researchers to improve communication and decision support with user groups.

The Outcome: This project will develop a modelling capability for the prediction and management of Canada’s seven major river basins.